minnows| Supply and demand are still easing, domestic soybean prices or the outcome has been set

Source: China Grain Network

In April, South American soybeans were listed one after another, and the global soybean market showed an overall loose pattern of supply and demand. In the case of the decline in the number of US bean export testing, the CBOT US bean futures price is weak downward; in the domestic market, there is not much surplus grain in the northeast producing area, all kinds of enterprise acquisitions are still going on, and the performance of soybean price is relatively stable. The consumption in the lower reaches of the southern market is flat, the supply of soybeans is relatively sufficient, and the price is weakening; the futures price of domestic soybean meal rises slightly, and the center of gravity of domestic soybean meal spot price moves down. After May, the focus of the market turned to summer grain as a whole. In the case of declining attention in the domestic soybean market, the first-phase price of beans or interval shocks were the main ones.

South American soybeans are concentrated on the market, and the center of gravity of international soybean prices moves downward.

In April, CBOT US bean futures prices fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the month, affected by factors such as the successive listing of South American soybeans and the continued strength of the US dollar, the number of US bean export tests declined, CBOT US bean futures prices continued to decline, and the main contract once fell to an annual low of 1145 cents / bushel in the middle of this month. At the end of the month, driven by the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar and the sharp rise in CBOT wheat futures, US bean futures rebounded.

Analysis of the future, many factors: first, the global soybean meal consumption is better than expected, soybean crushing volume increased compared with the same period last year. According to oil world statistics, the global soybean processing volume in the first quarter of 2024 was 76.08 million tons, an increase of 8 percent over the same period last year, and soybean meal production was 59.7 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons over the same period last year. Second, the US government meteorological department predicts that the global El Ni ñ o phenomenon will turn into a La Nina phenomenon in June this year, which means that dry weather is more likely to occur in the central United States in summer, affecting the growth of beans in 2024 and 2025.

Negative factors: first, the USDA report on supply and demand of agricultural products in April raised the final inventory of American beans. 2023 to 2024 US soybean ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels to 3.Minnows.40 billion bushels, 28.8 percent higher than the previous year, is the highest inventory in four years. Second, South American soybeans were concentrated on the market in the second quarter. Although Argentine soybean production is expected to decline, it is still expected to produce more than 50 million tons, much higher than the previous year.

With a large number of South American soybeans on the market in the second quarter, supply and demand in the global soybean market tends to be loose, and soybean prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. However, with the sowing of American beans in 2024 and 2025, American beans have gradually entered a weather-sensitive period, if the growing period of American beans encounter adverse weather or bring a wave of rising prices for beans.

The surplus grain at the grass-roots level has bottomed out, and domestic soybeans are weakening and shaking.

In April, farmers in northeast China began to prepare for the new season soybean, and the grass-roots surplus grain bottomed out. According to the calculation of the mysteel Agricultural products Network, at the end of this month, the surplus grain in the northwest of Heilongjiang is about 20%, and that in the northeast is about 10%. The situation of the surplus grain varies in different parts of the south, and the surplus grain is between 20% and 40%.

This month, the acquisition of various storage sites and trading enterprises in Northeast China is still under way, supporting the price of northeast soybeans. At the end of this month, the purchase price of Heilongjiang protein 39.5% domestic beans was about 4640,4720 yuan / ton, an increase of 20,60yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. The soybean supply in the southern market is relatively abundant, the demand is still weak, and the soybean price is stable and weak. The China Grain Reserve Oil Company organized five soybean procurement or two-way purchase and marketing fairs in 2023 this month, and the transaction situation was low because of the low purchase price.

In terms of futures, the price of the first phase of soybean fell sharply this month, and its position decreased compared with the same period last month. The main 2407 contract once fell to 4600 yuan / ton, although the price rebounded at the end of the month, but the rebound was not strong.

At present, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level has bottomed out, and the pressure on market supply has gradually weakened. With the weather gradually getting warmer and the consumption of soybean products entering the off-season, under the intertwined fundamentals of the domestic soybean market, the market sentiment is still unstable, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand of domestic soybeans is still there. After May, the focus of market attention has shifted to summer grain. In the case of declining attention in the domestic soybean market, prices or interval shocks are the main.

Import of soybeans to Hong Kong increased, domestic soybean meal stocks increased

In April, domestic soybean meal futures prices rose slightly, and the center of gravity of domestic soybean meal spot prices moved down. At the end of the month, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in coastal areas was 3240,3380 yuan / ton, down 600.80 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. Affected by the decline in the futures prices of US soybean oil and BMD crude palm oil, the spot price of domestic soybean oil continued to weaken this month, while the oil meal strengthened compared with the same period last month.

The number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong increased in April, the crushing volume of domestic oil factories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and domestic soybean meal stocks rebounded. According to monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center, soybean meal stocks in China's major oil factories were 460000 tons on April 19, up 170000 tons from the same period last year, 30, 000 tons higher than the average in the past three years, but still at a medium-low level in the same period in history.

The production capacity of pigs at the breeding end gradually appeared, and the stock of breeding sows, medium and large pigs and newborn piglets all showed a downward trend. Since March, domestic pig prices have shown an overall upward trend, and pig breeding profits have recovered. When releasing the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics mentioned that domestic pig prices have reached the inflection point of price adjustment, boosting market confidence to a certain extent.

Brazilian soybeans have been arriving in Hong Kong since April and are expected to arrive from April to JuneMinnowsThe average monthly arrival of soybeans in China is more than 10 million tons. In the second quarter, the supply of domestic imported soybeans is loose, and the domestic soybean meal supply will increase. However, as of the end of April, the domestic soybean meal inventory is still low. After the profits of downstream farming enterprises recover, the feed demand increases. From April to June, the domestic soybean meal price or maintain the interval shock trend, pay attention to the domestic soybean meal inventory situation.

Downstream demand was weak and soybean imports declined in the first quarter.

China's soybean imports hit a four-year low of 5.54 million tons in March, reflecting low profits in domestic pig farming, curbing soybean meal consumption and crushing demand, according to the General Administration of Customs. In the first three months of this year, China imported 7.14 million tons of soybeans from the United States, down 50 per cent from the same period last year, while imports from Brazil increased by 155 per cent over the same period last year.

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