ggpokersnapcam| Crazy photovoltaic: Falling below cost prices and still bucking the trend to expand production, the technical choice is "between life and death", who will ultimately win?

Every reporter Zhu Chengxiang every editor Wei Guanhong

"it's come to this.GgpokersnapcamYou have to change the track, it's just a bet. " On April 22, Li Yong (a pseudonym), a practitioner in the photovoltaic industry, lamented to the Daily Economic News. Its company is actively transforming to N-type heterojunction, although the overall recruitment of the company is very small, but the heterojunction project is still short of people.

The background of the conversion track is the rapid replacement of N-type P-type since 2023. According to InfoLink, the market share of type P and type N is 71% and 27% respectively in 2023. In 2024, N-type is expected to completely replace P-type, with a market share of nearly 79%.

At a time when various photovoltaic industry chains are facing overcapacity, various enterprises are paying close attention to the trend of technological development and active layout. According to grass-roots photovoltaic data, from March 20 to April 20, the number of projects signed, started and put into production of silicon materials, wafers, batteries and components reached 24, and the total investment disclosed reached 2180.Ggpokersnapcam.50 million yuan.

Why do a large number of enterprises choose to expand production under the photovoltaic surplus? Perhaps these companies are convinced that this round of overcapacity is largely structural, with new N-type capacity replacing the old P-type capacity.

Silicon material and wafer fall below the cost line

Loss and suffering must be the psychological portrayal of current photovoltaic enterprises. The Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "Silicon Industry Branch") said on March 27th: "the downstream wafer inventory is above 35GW, and the wafer price falls below cash (cost)."

On April 17, the Silicon Industry Branch said: "at present, the price of silicon has fallen below the production cost of enterprises, reaching the cash cost of some enterprises."

In terms of battery chips, the Silicon Industry Branch said on April 18: "in this round of games, the battery link has taken the lead in adjusting, so so far it has basically achieved a break-even, with a slight advantage over other links."

In October 2023, Liu Yuxi, regional president of Longji Green Energy (601012.SH, 19.25 yuan, market capitalization 145.9 billion yuan), said: "the price of photovoltaic modules is already very low. If it falls below 1 yuan, it means that it has completely fallen below the cost price."

According to InfoLink data, on April 17, the price of 182mm single crystal PERC module (double-sided double glass) is 0.880 yuan / W, and the price of 210mm is 0.900 yuan / watt; N-type, 182mm single crystal TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact) module (double-sided double glass) module price is 0.940 yuan / watt, 210mm single crystal HJT (heterojunction) module price is 1.150 yuan / watt.

In short, except for the 210mm single crystal HJT module, all the others fell below one yuan. However, the cost of HJT components is also relatively high. It can be seen that among the four major links of silicon material, silicon wafer, battery chip and module, only the battery chip can break even, and the other three links all fall below the cost line, which shows the serious overcapacity of the industry.

On April 18, the relevant person in charge of 002459.SZ (stock price 14.77 yuan, market capitalization 48.884 billion yuan) told the Daily Economic News: "the current overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry belongs to phased and structural overcapacity, which has been the norm in the past 20 years of photovoltaic development. The overcapacity of photovoltaic industry is affected by many factors, such as market demand, technology iteration, policy adjustment and industry competition, and the realization degree and speed of these factors are uncertain. and the fundamental solution to the problem of overcapacity also needs self-adjustment within the industry and the optimization of the market mechanism. "

With regard to the silicon link, Hesheng Silicon Industry also replied to reporters on April 18: "the current overcapacity in the polysilicon industry is mainly structural overcapacity."

Hesheng Silicon added: "in 2022, various links of the photovoltaic industry will expand and speed up, and polysilicon will attract a large number of investors to put into production and construction." After entering 2023, the new production capacity has been released one after another, and the domestic polysilicon supply has increased significantly, which has led to a decline in prices. In this context, the polysilicon industry appears short-term oversupply situation. "

Surplus: structural and phased

Although many links have fallen below the cost price, the photovoltaic industry is still actively expanding production.

The China News Service reported that on April 11, Hongling Silicon Materials (Urumqi) Co., Ltd. held a construction ceremony in Midong District with an annual output of 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon. The project has a total investment of 9.5 billion yuan and covers an area of about 1285 mu. It is planned to be divided into two phases of construction. After it is put into production, the estimated annual output value can reach 8 billion yuan. The main products of the project are solar grade high purity crystal silicon and electronic grade polysilicon for semiconductors. after reaching production, high quality polysilicon which can be used in N-type single crystal will be provided in the field of photovoltaic.

Yangzhou announced that the new Linfei solar module intelligent manufacturing project started on the same day (April 15) with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, mainly engaged in the production, research and development and sales of N-type 210-TOPCon module products, the project will be implemented in two phases, and the total component production capacity will reach 10GW after all is completed.

According to the Anqing Evening News, on the afternoon of April 3, at the third China Business Conference, the projects signed were Tongcheng Shanghai Yizhao Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has a total investment of 6 billion yuan. It produces 6GW heterojunction batteries and 6GW double glass modules.

It can be seen that most of the new expansion projects are aimed at the N-type track, including N-type silicon material and N-type battery chips and components.

This is due to the rapid increase in N-type market share in 2023. The person in charge of Jingao Technology said: "compared with P-type technology, N-type technology has higher conversion efficiency and lower attenuation rate, which makes N-type products more attractive in the market, and the market share is increasing rapidly. The photovoltaic industry is in a period of transition from P-type technology to N-type technology, and the growth of demand for N-type technology is promoting the rapid withdrawal of P-type technology from the market. The problem of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry is affected by market demand, technology iteration, policy adjustment, industry competition and other factors. Technology iteration promotes structural changes in the photovoltaic industry and brings new opportunities for the development of the industry. "

Hesheng Silicon Industry also believes: "in terms of product types, the current photovoltaic cell technology is changing from P-type to N-type. Under this trend, the supply of P-type silicon exceeds demand, while the supply of N-type silicon is still tight." In the future, with the production capacity of N-type battery on the ground, the demand for N-type silicon will increase rapidly. In other words, the current polysilicon industry overcapacity, mainly for the overcapacity of backward production. "

It added: "in terms of market competition, as N-type batteries have been proved to have higher photoelectric conversion efficiency and a wider range of application scenarios than P-type, the demand for N-type silicon will grow rapidly driven by terminal demand."

Where is the way out?

It should be noted that although the photovoltaic industry is facing a fierce price war, the industry as a whole still maintains growth. That is, photovoltaic demand continues to grow, but capacity expansion is significantly faster than demand growth.

The overall scale of global demand will continue to grow deterministically in 2024, and component demand for the whole year is expected to come to 492GW, with a forecast growth of about 6 per cent and 15 per cent, InfoLink said. Looking forward to this year, the demand for components in China is expected to reach 245GW-255GW, an increase of about 7% and 11% compared with last year. Although the growth has obviously slowed down, the market is still very large, and we can still look forward to the development of the Chinese market this year.

Through the growth of market size, can overcapacity be partially alleviated? The person in charge of Jingao science and technology said: "although the photovoltaic industry is currently facing the challenge of overcapacity, the demand growth potential of the global market is expected to gradually digest this excess capacity. Especially driven by technological progress, cost reduction, policy support and emerging market development. However, this process may take time and require active adjustment within the industry and optimization of the market mechanism. "

Through price competition, if we can make some small and medium-sized manufacturers withdraw, whether it will help to alleviate overcapacity. In this regard, the person in charge of Jingao science and technology said: "compared with supply and demand, with the gradual withdrawal of backward production capacity, inventory digestion, the further growth of global market demand, the relationship between supply and demand is expected to gradually return to a reasonable level." In the period of industry adjustment, enterprises with core technology and market competitiveness will be more likely to tide over the difficulties, while enterprises that lack core competitiveness may be eliminated. "

It added: "the withdrawal of some players in the photovoltaic industry may alleviate the problem of overcapacity to a certain extent, and have an impact on capacity optimization, market concentration, market balance, supply chain integration, promotion of industrial upgrading, etc., and provide new opportunities for the integration and development of the industry. However, this process requires the combination of policy guidance, market regulation and self-optimization within the industry to achieve healthy and sustainable industry development. "

It is worth mentioning that in the N-type route, there is also a dispute between heterojunction and TOPCon. And the choice of technological route may also have a significant impact on the future development of enterprises.

Source: visual China-VCG41N1315872825